UK electricity capacity at 7-year low

National Grid has published its 2014/15 Winter Outlook with a warning that its electricity capacity is at a seven-year low.

The Outlook has been produced by National Grid in its role as electricity System Operator and as owner and operator of gas transmission infrastructure in Great Britain.

The Outlook follows consultation with the energy industry, analysts, academics and energy policy experts. On gas, supplies are in a strong position this winter, with gas supplies, storage and network capacity well in excess of maximum expected demand.

This year electricity margins have decreased compared to recent years, with the average cold spell (ACS) margin expected to be 4.1%.

This is due to planned generator closures, breakdowns and new plant not coming online as quickly to replace them. In response, National Grid is finalising contracts with three power stations to provide additional reserve under Supplemental Balancing Reserve (SBR); these are Littlebrook, Rye House CCGT and Peterhead CCGT.

Together with the Demand Side Balancing Reserve (DSBR) that National Grid has already contracted, these will provide an additional 1.1 GW of de-rated capacity to that assumed available in our base case, increasing the de-rated margin from 4.1% to 6.1%.

Cordi O’Hara, Director of Market Operation, said: “The Winter Outlook Report provides the energy market with a snapshot of the potential gas and electricity picture for the coming winter. “Our analysis shows gas supplies to be in a strong position. Supply sources are diverse, network capacity is healthy and gas storage is well stocked.

“The electricity margin has decreased compared to recent years, but the outlook remains manageable and well within the reliability standard set by Government.

“As System Operator, we have taken the sensible precaution to secure additional tools to bolster our response to tighter margins. “We will continue to keep a close watching brief across both electricity and gas throughout the winter so that we’re strongly placed to respond to any unanticipated events.”